Doing the math that the Obama Administration will not do

Here are a few central claims of the Obama Administration: the programme will cover an additional 30 million people; the website crashed because it was only designed to handle 50,000 users at a time; and the penalties for the individual mandate will apply to those who have not purchased coverage by Valentine’s Day 2014.

There are 137 days between 01 October 2013 and 14 February 2014.  In order to sign up thirty million people in that time frame, then an average of 219,000 people would need to sign up every single day.

This is a low-ball estimate: it assumes that 0% of the people who currently have health insurance will try to get on the exchanges, i.e. that the only people using the exchanges will be those who did not have health insurance on 30 September 2013.  However, an estimated 37 million people will be tossed from employer-sponsored coverage and put onto the exchanges, meaning that an estimated 67 million people would need to sign up in the 137 day open-enrollment period, i.e. an average of 489,000 people per day.

Certainly, some of these people will be on state exchanges, not the federal exchange, but what kind of neuron-deficient moron designs a website to handle 50,000 people at a time, when it must handle ten times as many people per day?  That is at or over capacity all day, every day.

Of course, that 489,000 people is an average: in reality, there will be a huge crush of people signing up at the beginning of a month (when they lose coverage), at the end of the open enrollment period, and right before Valentine’s Day, in order to avoid the penalty.

 

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